Minhaz Merchant has recently published his projections for the 2014 Elections-
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes...al-math-part-1
Statewise projections can be found on the link above.
NDA
BJP-205, SS 16, SAD 7, HJC 1, INLD 1, Independents/Others 4
NDA Total -234
UPA
Congress-93, NCP 4, NC 2, Independents/Others: 5
UPA Total-104
My Comments-
- 14 Seats for the BJP in Karnataka is unrealistic. In the current scenario the best they can aim for is 5. If Yeddyurappa comes back, they will get 10. It will be a close fight in another 5 seats but I doubt the BJP can win those seats.
- 5 seats for BJP in Andhra Pradesh is too much.
- No way Congress is winning 2 seats in Bihar.
- BJP will win around 22 seats in Bihar. 18 is an underestimation.
- BJP will sweep all 26 seats in Gujarat.
- BJP will get 21 or 22 seats in Rajasthan. 16 is an underestimation.
- 10 seats for DMK is too much. They will win 4 or 5 at the most.
- BJP will get 50 to 55 seats in Uttar Pradesh. 39 is an underestimation.
Overall, I think as per present situation, BJP- 225, Congress- 84.
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